The Premier League campaign is set to begin exactly one week from today.
We'll be capping off our season preview coverage with a look at the odds of each club claiming a top-four spot.
| TEAM | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Manchester City | -3333 |
| Liverpool | -833 |
| Chelsea | -149 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | -149 |
| Manchester United | +150 |
| Arsenal | +175 |
| Newcastle United | +800 |
| West Ham United | +1200 |
| Aston Villa | +1600 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | +1600 |
| Leicester City | +1600 |
| Crystal Palace | +3300 |
| Everton | +3300 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | +3300 |
| Brentford | +5000 |
| Leeds United | +5000 |
| Southampton | +5000 |
| Fulham | +6600 |
| Nottingham Forest | +6600 |
| Bournemouth | +15000 |
The odds imply Manchester City have a 97% chance of finishing in the top four. While you never know when injuries will strike, it's hard to make a case against a team that's won the EPL in four of the last five years and has added impact players like Erling Haaland and, to a lesser extent, Kalvin Phillips.
Liverpool are also seen as extremely likely to make the top four. Quite frankly, the odds may not be as short as they should be. They're within striking distance of Man City for the top spot every year, and their team is loaded and balanced from top to bottom.
At -149, there might well be value in backing Chelsea to claim a top-four spot. They were a very potent side a year ago and appear to be a whole lot better. Newcomer Raheem Sterling should give their offense a dynamic jolt; he's a much better fit than Romelu Lukaku. While Antonio Rudiger and Andreas Christensenwalked away on free transfers, Kalidou Koulibaly should provide a big upgrade to an already strong backline.
Tottenham Hotspur are the last team with odds implying they're more likely than not to finish in the top four. They were humming down the stretch under Antonio Conte, scoring more goals (47) than all but Manchester City from Jan. 1 onward.
Arsenal stand out in the next tier. Their expected goal metrics were on par with Chelsea's after the calendar flipped, and they added a lot of talent during the summer window. Gabriel Jesus is the headliner addition, but Fabio Vieira and Oleksandr Zinchenko should also be quality regulars. Alexandre Lacazette, whose best days are behind him, was the only "big" loss.
In terms of long shots, Crystal Palace and Brentford are a couple of intriguing values.
Only Manchester City and Liverpool conceded fewer goals than Palace in 2022. The addition of defensive midfielder Cheick Doucoure should make them an even stingier side. They're not going to score a ton of goals, but they could grind out plenty of low-scoring wins.
It's a similar story for Brentford. They finished seventh in expected points last season on the back of a stout defense. They'll be hoping new signings Aaron Hickey (wing-back) and Keane Lewis-Potter(left-wing) can breathe a little more life into the attack.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.